March 28, 2024

Daily Wrap

DJIA +106.98 (+0.83%) to 12,985.11; S&P 500 +10.99 (+0.79%) to 1,409.93; NASDAQ +23.99 (+0.81%) to 2,991.78;

Today’s action began with a drop in the market which rallied back to even by noon time and then pressed higher for the remainder of the day.  The lows of the day correlated nicely with the 38% fib from the lows of 11/16 to the highs on 11/23 as well as the 200 Day SMA all coming in around 1384.

In economic news today the main headline was New Home Sales which came in lighter than expected.  While the news was negative and many stocks in the related sectors were lower, it was not a major catalyst and stocks were only slightly lower if at all.

There were many stock making waves today including Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) which gained over 26% on earnings that crushed analyst estimates and followed up by providing guidance also above the street.  I like GMCR but unfortunately this is not the place for me to step in.  Momentum traders can look for GMCR to keep making higher lows and use today’s low as your stop but I would be on the sidelines waiting for a better set-up.

Looking at the companies scheduled to release earnings before today’s open I couldn’t help but notice many retail names.  I was especially interested in what they would report and if they could build on the momentum  many names saw after reports of a hot Black Friday.  For the most part I would say they didn’t disappoint and we saw many names higher on earnings reports including American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), PVH (PVH), Express (EXPR), Movado Group (MOV) and Costco (COST).

Facing pressure today was Mellanox (MLNX), an Israeli Semiconductor company, which was down over 9%.  The only note I found was worry of increased competition from INTC.  That very well be true but I think you could have made an argument that technically the chart needed work and maybe that is why that news was able to move the stock so much.  Otherwise I was not familiar with this name but I will do some work on it and see if this drop will ultimately provide an opportunity.  Also moving lower was another name I am not too familiar with, The Fresh Market (TFM) which not only missed on earnings but had what some called the surprise resignation of their CFO Lisa Klinger.  Even with todays near 7% drop in TFM, I am still not interested in the name.

From the Event’s Calendar for tomorrow:

8:30 AM Prelim GDP;8:30 AM Unemployment Claims; 8:30 AM Prelim GDP Price Index; 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales; 10:30 AM Natural Gas Storage

According to Briefing.com, the following noteworthy companies are scheduled to report earnings before tomorrow’s open: BKS, BECN, CBRL, FRO, GBDC, ISLE, KR, LQDT, LTXC, NJR, SFL, TIF

Back to the markets and specifically the S&P 500.  With today’s rally off the 35% fib and the 200 day SMA we saw the market actually make a small new high compared to the Friday 1/2 day high on 11/23.  Looking at the 4 hour chart this could be lining up for a move to the 50 Day SMA. There are many individual stock names that have been working well and providing trades and right now I would much rather play those names with palatable stops then try and predict the next S&P move.  Now many of those names like DECK, PCLN, TSLA, FSLR, NXTM (see comments on Stock Twits WSConsensus) to name a few I am looking to take gains on some, most or all and using stops for the remainder.  Other names like DLTR I have said goodbye to all together.  So why take gains, well because I do feel it would be healthier for the market to correct here and I would rather not have as much on the table and have powder for re-entering certain names.

Charts below show the S&P 500 e-mini 4 hour futures, S&P 500 Daily index with fibs and the amount of stocks over 10,20,50 and 200 Day SMA for S&P, Nasdaq & Russell 2K.

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