March 29, 2024

Daily Wrap

DJIA -13.82 (-0.11%) to 12,951.78; S&P 500 -2.41 (-0.17%) to 1,407.05; NASDAQ -5.51 (-0.18%) to 2,996.69;

This weekend the word we referenced entering this week was caution. Not necessarily bearishness but caution.  Caution because of how much we have rallied, caution because of the levels we were up against and caution because of Washington.  Today was a classic representation of the markets showing lack of conviction and/or indecision and that make me maintain cautious.  Early gains today we lost relatively early and after a bounce which started around 1pm petered out around 3pm we retraced roughly have of the gains from the low and closed slightly down for the day.

First Solar (FSLR) was definitely a stock worth noting today.  I have to be the first to admit that while a trade idea I was clearly a skeptic and for two reasons.  One I am not in love with the company and two I felt that the FSR resistance around $26 is a chart I had seen multiple places and often when that happens I feel the likelihood of a false breakout become much higher.  This was not one of those cases and as we noted earlier today on StockTwits (WSConsensus) we now have a reference point above the breakout level to use for technical stops but also in this recent trading environment I think it is wise to look at scaling out of some parts of a position on rallies which then provides the option to trail with stops to close or re-enter at lower prices.

NxStage Medical (NXTM) was another stock in the news today and was also a long idea which has done well.  Well, until today that is.  After a downgrade the stock was under pressure but was able to close off the lows.  This is a great example of why we preach scaling of of some as winners move to lock in gains as there can always be these extraneous risks outside of the pattern.  NXTM was still a winner even at the stop so that is a plus but if you had not taken any off yet you would have given back about 5% from the previous 3 day’s average close.  NXTM remains on the radar but I would actually refer to see new lows so I will step aside for now and let it breath.

Last but certainly not least Netflix (NFLX) moving higher today on an announced distribution agreement with Disney (DIS) for exclusive U.S. subscription rights to DIS films.  This agreement starts 2016.  I lamented NFLX this weekend as one I missed but want in and I have to say I wasn’t in for this move.  I still believe a better set-up will occur to step in and it could ultimately be at higher prices but will come with more clarity and conviction and I am yet to rule out being able to buy lower but it just might be much later than originally anticipated.

There is a fair amount of Economic Data tomorrow after nothing today so instead of re-listing I will just provide the link to the section here.  I will be updating the results as the number come out.  Event’s Calendar 

According to Briefing.com, the following noteworthy companies are scheduled to report earnings before tomorrow’s open: BF.B, FRAN, GIII, TTC

Back to the markets and somewhat not surprising I don’t have too much to say.  On the last push higher we had small divergence and the MACD was running into the zero level.  We still have that formation but also have held in well.  I think the value in in playing individual set-ups like those we feature here and on StockTwits and then maybe using the market to hedge or take a trading position on a more clear pattern.  In the meantime I cannot say I have the conviction I want so instead won’t risk the capital.  Below is a FSLR chart, and updated SPX and also an updated Stocks above the MA chart which I noted recently was calling for a rest while at short term extended levels and again proved to be a nice sentiment indicator.

 

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