November 17, 2018

Energy leads while healthcare lags

The Market: Overall a consolidation session in the markets as the Dow (DIA) finished higher while the S&P 500 (SPY), NASDAQ (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) finished lower . Energy stocks continue to remain in vogue as the XLE finished 2.22% higher on the session and marked the 5th straight day of higher closes.  Materials (XLB) was the next closest outperformer finishing up 1.3% and Technology (XLK) was the only other sector to finish up. Lagging in today’s session was HealthCare (XLV) which finished down -2.35% and saw all components finish the day lower except for Mallinckrodt (MNK) and Dentsply…

Markets finish up but look vulnerable

The Market: While it was not our expectation, we noted in Tuesday’s NightCap that, if the market extended higher, we would expect the downward sloping 20 day SMA to act as resistance.  If you look at the SPY, this is exactly where the market stopped in early trading on Wednesday and then proceeded to pullback sharply.  While all the major indices on the WSC Scoreboard finished higher in today’s trading, the market looks vulnerable to more downside in the coming days-weeks. Leading sectors in today’s trading was Transportation (IYT), Technology (XLK), and HealthCare (XLV) while the Utilities (XLU) and Retail…

Volatility & Chop continues

The Market: Volatility continues to be the name of the game which is why you can have a 40+ point day like today and still have the S&P 500 within a range/wedge.  While it is possible that we extend today’s rally by gaping higher tomorrow, it is not our expectation and if we do open higher tomorrow we would watch the downward sloping 20 day SMA as resistance. Overall, a light Economic Calendar this week Thursday and Friday having the most significant data points (Unemployment Claims, PPI, and Consumer Sentiment).       Reported EPS 9/8/15 After the Close:  …

Huge intraday swings

The Market: As expected, volatility continues and while we would not expect 100 point S&P days to become a common occurrence we do expect to see sharp swings both up and down. Our current expectation is that the market will ultimately revisit this morning’s lows is not make new lows but in the short-term the market is very oversold and should stage some sort of rally — not just intraday like today but on a closing basis over a few days.  That rally will be very telling and if weak we could be setting up for much much lower and…

Major Market Indices down near or over 2%!

  The Market: We warned in last week’s update that we viewed the pattern in the market as one that warranted caution.  In the short term we view the market as very oversold and due for a bounce.  Ideally we would like to see a failed rally in the Futures overnight that results in a gap down in the cash index which provides an opportunity to get long in early trading.  It is also worth noting that the SPY closed right at the 200 day SMA & EMA which should act as support — even if only short term. Looking…

Revisiting December’s lows

Index & Sector performance 1/6/15 The Market: Oil appears to still be affecting the broad market and causing caution in investors as crude, which lost the psychological $50 level yesterday, traded down over $2 in today’s session. Yesterday we remarked that a gap down in the morning could be a short term trading opportunity to the long side but unfortunately we opened flat to slightly up, negative the set-up, and then continue to crawl higher in the first hour of trading before the indices began to sharply lose ground.  Today’s sharp drop eventually found support at the mid-December trading lows…

Oil trades below $50 & leads market lower

Index & Sector performance 1/5/15 The Market: The market was again led by Oil’s decline as we closed below $50 per barrel for the first time since 2009.  In the Analyst Comments below you will see a downgrade for Caterpillar (CAT) by JP Morgan.  In the note the analyst commented that up to 30% of CAT’s revenue could be under pressure due to lower oil prices.  Similarly, Evercore downgraded Terex (TEX) to Hold with an $26 target and United Rentals (URI) to Sell with a $87 target citing concerns that oil’s sharp decline will hurt energy investments and thus construction…

Volatility the new norm

Index & Sector performance 10/16/14 The Market: A session like today may look uneventful when scanning the WSC Scoreboard and looking at the end of day changes but it masks the large intraday swings.  An example is the S&P 500 (SPY) had a roughly 50 point range from high to low today (5 points in the SPY) which represents nearly 3% based on today’s opening price.  Traders and investors need to be prepared for an environment with increased volatility which could last for an extended period. The Russell 2000 (IWM) remains the clear leader of late finishing up over 1%. …

Late rally masks tough session

Index & Sector performance 10/15/14 The Market: A very volatile session in today’s trading which saw the S&P 500 (SPY) down 3% before a sharp last hour rally helped the index only finish down 0.75%.  Without that late rally, the SPY would have been down year-to-date at the close.  As has been the case of late, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed finishing the session up over 1%. The best performing sector in today’s session was Energy (XLE).  Like the SPY, the XLE was down much more earlier in the session but finished the session up 0.76% after a strong last…

Russell outperforms in ugly session

Index & Sector performance 10/13/14 The Market: Another 1+% down day across the major indices on the WSC Scoreboard except for the Russell 2000 (IWM) which finished the session down only 0.42%.  YTD the IWM is still the clear loser down 9.55% but today’s outperformance is interesting and something to watch.  IWM’s underperformance starting earlier in the year was a warning so if it begins to outperform on a consistent basis going forward it should be noted. It does not feel like very long ago when the only down sector on the WSC Scoreboard Was Retail (XRT) but now we…