April 20, 2018

Huge intraday swings


The Market: As expected, volatility continues and while we would not expect 100 point S&P days to become a common occurrence we do expect to see sharp swings both up and down. Our current expectation is that the market will ultimately revisit this morning’s lows is not make new lows but in the short-term the market is very oversold and should stage some sort of rally — not just intraday like today but on a closing basis over a few days.  That rally will be very telling and if weak we could be setting up for much much lower and…

Back-to-Back big declines


The Market: WOW!  As we noted in Wednesday’s Nightcap, we expected volatility to continue and that there “seems to be a great deal of risk in the market”.  That is why we noted a move below Wednesday’s low of 2070 in the S&P 500 could trigger a sharp decline targeting 2000 in the S&P to start.  That is certainly NOT to say we expected the S&P to get there by Friday! The S&P did not make the close easy going out right at the lows evoking the fear of a strong gap lower Monday.  While a gap down Monday could…