November 19, 2018

Huge intraday swings

The Market: As expected, volatility continues and while we would not expect 100 point S&P days to become a common occurrence we do expect to see sharp swings both up and down. Our current expectation is that the market will ultimately revisit this morning’s lows is not make new lows but in the short-term the market is very oversold and should stage some sort of rally — not just intraday like today but on a closing basis over a few days.  That rally will be very telling and if weak we could be setting up for much much lower and…

Dollar giveth and taketh away

Index & Sector performance 3/19/15 The Market: It was noted in last night’s write-up that where the S&P 500 (SPY) decided to stop yesterday gave us pause and left the door open for a pullback.  We still see risk in the S&P in the short-term but a move back over yesterday’s high would force us to revisit that view. Oil reversed much of yesterday’s gains but has managed to remain above yesterday’s lows.  We noted in last night’s commentary that the risk/reward in the USO looked favorable with a stop below $15.61 and we would continue to use that as…

EPS helped shrug off bad overseas data

Index & Sector performance 11/20/14 The Market: It doesn’t look like the S&P 500 (SPY) had a strong session but considering the futures were down roughly 10 points pre-market reportedly due to weak data out of Europe and China, to finish up a few points is a strong showing.  Yesterday’s laggard was today’s leader as the Russell 2000 (IWM ) finished up over 1% clawing back most of yesterday’s losses and the Dow (DIA) was helped by Intel (INTC) which gained 4.66% after announcing a dividend hike and solid 2015 expected revenue growth. In individual sectors, Retail (XRT) led today…

Tight trading ends with pop higher

Index & Sector performance 11/18/14 The Market: After multiple sessions trading in a tight range the broad indices broke-out to new highs.  It is worth noting that volume was again light but that has been the case throughout much of this recent rally after the mid October bottom.  In the after hours session the futures started to give back some of today’s gains so we will be looking to see if today was a false breakout which gives way to a pullback or if the indices can hold. In individual sectors, HealthCare (XLV) led finishing 1.61% higher helped by strong…

FOMC statement & new Chair tomorrow

Index & Sector performance 3/18/14 The Market: We would not be shocked to see the market meander overnight and into tomorrow until the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s first press conference.  While we do not expect there to be a great difference in message or tone from the Fed, do not be surprised if the market uses this opportunity to send a message to Yellen if there is something that is not liked. In the meantime, traders should watch  today’s high of 1867ES as a break could be signaling a move to 1880ES and the index should see…

Waiting on Washington

Index & Sector performance 9/30/13 The Market: The lack of a deal from Washington on the impending government shutdown seemed to eight on trader’s mind.  While the S&P was able to rally after a gap down in early trading, the rally was short lived and around 1:30 pm EST the market again lost ground although was able to remain above the early morning lows In economic data we had Chicago PMI which came in slight better than expected with a 55.7 reading when 54.5 was expected.  Tomorrow we have Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM, Construction spending and Total Vehicle Sales. In…

Daily Wrap

Today was an ugly day for the markets.  We had highlighted, for the Bulls, a potential inverse H&S setting up on the 60 minute SPY chart but noted that the lows from 11/13/12 HAD to hold or the market could be looking at a bad situation.  The SPY made the highs for the day in the first 5 minutes of trading and then faced selling for the remainder.  The first leg down completed around 11am EST and then we meandered until later until around 2:15 pm EST when we broke hard for the rest of the day.  The President spoke…