August 19, 2017

The NightCap

Daily-Wrap

The Market: Stocks had another tough session following a second day where the Chinese market was halted.  Chinese officials have removed the circuit breaker restrictions for tomorrow’s session and traders appear to be preparing for a volatile session but it will be interesting to see if allowing the index to freely trade will ultimately help it bottom — even if only for the short-term. Another session where no Sector saw gains but the relative outperformers were Retail (XRT), which was helped by Wal-Mart (WMT) after gaining 2.3% on the session, and Monday’s leader Utilities (XLU). Along with what happens overnight…

Huge intraday swings

Daily-Wrap

The Market: As expected, volatility continues and while we would not expect 100 point S&P days to become a common occurrence we do expect to see sharp swings both up and down. Our current expectation is that the market will ultimately revisit this morning’s lows is not make new lows but in the short-term the market is very oversold and should stage some sort of rally — not just intraday like today but on a closing basis over a few days.  That rally will be very telling and if weak we could be setting up for much much lower and…

Weak ADP data helps market gap

Daily-Wrap

The Market: The market gapped and continued higher for the first hour of trading which the news attributed to a weak ADP number which could keep the Fed from raising interest rates anytime soon.  After the first hour of trading the major indices began to lose ground and, while they all finished up on the day, they were all also well off their highs. Leading on the WSC Scoreboard was Retail (XRT) which was the only sector to finish up by over 1% followed closely by Technology (XLK) which closed up 0.97%.  The only two losing sectors on the day…

Dollar giveth and taketh away

Daily-Wrap

Index & Sector performance 3/19/15 The Market: It was noted in last night’s write-up that where the S&P 500 (SPY) decided to stop yesterday gave us pause and left the door open for a pullback.  We still see risk in the S&P in the short-term but a move back over yesterday’s high would force us to revisit that view. Oil reversed much of yesterday’s gains but has managed to remain above yesterday’s lows.  We noted in last night’s commentary that the risk/reward in the USO looked favorable with a stop below $15.61 and we would continue to use that as…

QQQ & IWM reach new highs

Daily-Wrap

Index & Sector performance 2/26/15 The Market: More churn today in the markets but again the NASDAQ (QQQ) and Russell 2000 (IWM) showed more strength than the S&P 500 (SPY) with the QQQ and IWM reaching new 52-week closing highs on the session. Crude oil lost over 5% today which helped send the Energy (XLE) sector 1.88% lower.  We noted in our 2/18/15 nightly recap when the XLE was trading above $81 that we would look for a pullback toward $78 as a buying opportunity.  Closing today at $79.35, we would ideally like to see lower levels before dipping into…

Eurozone helps U.S. go green YTD

Daily-Wrap

Index & Sector performance 1/8/15 The Market: The Dow (DIA), S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ) are all green for the year as of today’s close with the Russell 2000 (IWM) lagging down 0.8%.  Considering there have only been about 5 trading days in the new year, this is not saying much but the recent 2 day recovery is impressive and reminiscent of what we saw all 2013 and 2014. Helping the U.S. market today was statements from Mario Draghi that the ECB will discuss adding more or new monetary stimulus at their next rate meeting in two weeks.  This…

EPS helped shrug off bad overseas data

Daily-Wrap

Index & Sector performance 11/20/14 The Market: It doesn’t look like the S&P 500 (SPY) had a strong session but considering the futures were down roughly 10 points pre-market reportedly due to weak data out of Europe and China, to finish up a few points is a strong showing.  Yesterday’s laggard was today’s leader as the Russell 2000 (IWM ) finished up over 1% clawing back most of yesterday’s losses and the Dow (DIA) was helped by Intel (INTC) which gained 4.66% after announcing a dividend hike and solid 2015 expected revenue growth. In individual sectors, Retail (XRT) led today…

Tech and HealthCare EPS lead

Daily-Wrap

Index & Sector performance 7/23/14 The Market: Today the stand out index was the NASDAQ (QQQ) which finished 0.64% higher with a lot of help from Apple (AAPL) which finished the day up 2.61% after reporting EPS yesterday after the close.  The S&P 500 (SPY) and Russell 2000 (IWM) were relatively flat, while the Dow (DIA) was the clear laggard and the only index to finish down on the session.  Weighing on the Dow was Boeing (BA) and Caterpillar (CAT) which finished down 2.34% and 1.53% respectively. In individual sectors it was HealthCare (XLV) which shined helped immensely by Intuitive…

Analyst Comments

Upgrades - Downgrades image

Since breaking out of a trading range back in October 2013, Alcoa (AA) has been a strong performer gaining over 50%.  With the stock trading around $9.24, Goldman Sachs upgraded AA to Buy with an $11 price target on 11/25/13 and later upped that target to $12 which AA reached in less than 2 months. This action has prompted Goldman Sachs to review AA again and instead of going to a Neutral, they are upping their price target once again this time to $15. We agree with Goldman that it appears AA has more left in the tank but it…

Slow grind higher continues

Daily-Wrap

Index & Sector performance 12/9/13 The Market: Another slow grinding day with a bias higher.  It is yet to be seen if this is a consolidation for a next leg higher or exhaustion with a leg lower to come.  To catch the most amount of people off guard the market could look to pop higher first to finish and then start a strong quick decline. There was no economic data today but there was Fed speak from FOMC member Bullard.  Bullard was a QE3 supporter and noted his stance that any Fed action is data dependent.  The increase in jobs…