April 20, 2018

The NightCap

Daily-Wrap

The Market: We expected to see a tight trading range until the FOMC statement but instead we saw buyers in advance of the statement as the S&P 500 (SPY) pressed higher.  The the announcement came and there was a sharp sell-off but buyers came right back and all 4 major market indices on the WSC Scoreboard finished above the pre-FOMC announcement highs. As was expected by many, the FOMC left the Fed Fund Rates unchanged but, based on the comments, it appears a rate hike is on the table for December if the data warrants.  We also saw the committee…

Holiday Fed combo = low vol

Daily-Wrap

The Market: A combination of the Rosh Hashanah (from sunset Sept 13th to nightfall Sept 15th) and traders waiting to see what the FOMC will say Thursday yielded a low volume choppy session which saw the markets finish slightly lower. There are not many earnings reports scheduled for this week but there are some noteworthy names including Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and Rite Aid (RAD). No Economic data today but the remainder of the week is fairly packed with the aforementioned FOMC Rate decision and Statement scheduled for Thursday.       Reported EPS After the Close this…

$50 is the new $5….

Daily-Wrap

The Market: As expected, volatility continues and $50 point swings are becoming as common as $5 point swings use to be.  We expect volatility to remain high but would not be surprised to see the magnitude of the swing start to temper. Today was important because after two straight days of gap ups that sold off into the close, today managed to hold and extend on the gap after an intraday pullback.  As we noted in Monday’s write-up,  the market is very short-term oversold and we would expect a bounce so today’s action is not surprising but we will be…

Huge intraday swings

Daily-Wrap

The Market: As expected, volatility continues and while we would not expect 100 point S&P days to become a common occurrence we do expect to see sharp swings both up and down. Our current expectation is that the market will ultimately revisit this morning’s lows is not make new lows but in the short-term the market is very oversold and should stage some sort of rally — not just intraday like today but on a closing basis over a few days.  That rally will be very telling and if weak we could be setting up for much much lower and…

China & Buffett support stong session

Daily-Wrap

The Market: A strong overnight session in China which was triggered by changes to the latest monetary policy report and also on reports that China will overhaul state-owned enterprises helped get the market started and then Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) helped fan the fire by first purchasing Precision Cast Part (PCP) for $235/share in cash and then during an interview noted that he likes IBM (IBM) and answered a question about if he is buying that people should check the SEC filings in the coming days.  The Dow (DIA) led today’s rally. Energy (XLE) was the biggest…

Oil gets crushes while market dips

Daily-Wrap

The Market: A small down day which could have looked worse if not for a late day rally off the lows.  Interesting to see the leaders to the downside were the Dow (DIA) and Russell 2000 (IWM).  We were looking for the market to close just off the lows and then gap down tomorrow for a short-term long opportunity but today’s end of day rally has changed that set-up. Overall we remain cautious on the broad market and believe the choppy trading of late will continue. Energy (XLE) led to the downside, again, as crude oil continues to slide reaching…

Market churns while XLU heads lower

Daily-Wrap

Index & Sector performance 2/25/15 The Market: Another day of churn as the market continues to grind with an upward bias.  As we posted over at StockTwits we are starting to see a lot of negative divergence setting up on the MACD.  Divergence is not a trigger itself but is showing signs that each move higher comes with less momentum and excitement. Utilities (XLU) was the leader to the downside and a name we recently posted about in the Charts section.   After seeing a lot of people bullish on the name, we laid the road map we felt the Bulls…

Off the 200 Day and up

Daily-Wrap

Index & Sector performance 2/2/15 The Market: The S&P 500 (SPY) started the session lower but found support just slightly above the 200 day SMA which has not been visited since October 2014.  After an initial pop and then pullback the index rallied the remainder of the session to finish over 30 points off the lows.  So far in the after hours the index is holding the gains and consolidating.  Today’s action should be very promising for long traders and you know your stops — below today’s lows. The leading sector on the WSC Scoreboard was Energy (XLE) finishing up…

Back test of the 20 & down

Daily-Wrap

Index & Sector performance 12/11/14 The Market: Strong optimism in early trading was attributed to better than expected Retail Sales numbers and Unemployment Claims along with the stabilization of oil but in midday trading, after the S&P 500 (SPY) had rallied back to re-test its 20 day SMA, oil started to slide and took the SPY with it.  While the table above shows the SPY up on the session, as it currently stands those gains have been entirely erased in the aftermarket. We will be watching the overnight session to see if the S&P can stabilize, reverse, or if it…

FOMC rate decision highlights big data week

Daily-Wrap

Index & Sector performance 9/15/14 The Market: The Dow (DIA) was the only index on the WSC Scoreboard to finish higher on the session while the NASDAQ (QQQ) and Russell 2000 (IWM) took a hit losing 0.97% and 1.15% respectively.  Baring any unforeseen news, we would not be surprised to see the markets get quiet until the FOMC rate decision and Statement later in the trading day Wednesday. In individual sectors, Retail (XRT) was the biggest loser on the session finishing down nearly 1% and remains the laggard on the year.  On the upside, Energy (XLE) started off strong after…